Is the Hype Justified? | Nikola Topić NBA Draft Scouting Report
Serbian point guard Nikola Topić is a hot name in the NBA draft scouting space due to his great start of the season. But is his game translatable and can he have great numbers in NBA too?
If you just check most of the big draft sites and their draft boards, you can find Nikola Topić in the top15 range more often than not. I also ran a poll on my Twitter page out of curiosity where my followers see Nikola Topić ending on the draft night. The poll was anonymous and not all the votes carry the same weight since there might be some voters that haven’t watched him play and just voted out of curiosity to see the poll results. In the end, the results of my poll also put him somewhere in the top15 range.
Personally, I always create my own boards and I am not scared to go against the consensus if I am higher/lower on the prospect. The results of polls and other draft boards will not change my opinion and I believe all scouts/sites should work that way. My goal is that later - after a few years - when I check my board, see where I made the mistake and how I can improve so that I don’t repeat the mistake again in a future draft cycle. I can only do that if I know what my decision-making process was and I cannot do it if I just copy and arrange the draft boards of other sites.
It is not a secret that this draft class is open and that there is no obvious frontrunner(s) for the highest pick(s). That does not mean that the class is bad, there are many interesting prospects that might be the right puzzle for a winning team, and the scouts & front office executive’s job is to find and draft them. But is Nikola Topić one of them and worth a lottery pick?
To make it clear: scouting is an ongoing process of evaluation, not just a one-time thing. The process of scouting Nikola Topić is not done after I publish this article and the report is made of the information that I have collected so far. There is still a lot of time till the draft night and my opinions on him (and on all other prospects for that matter) will probably change with more intel and information collected.
Statistical Overview
This is the part of the report where I can just lay back and let others do their work. Jernej is the master of numbers & graphs and Tilen, as you already saw in previous reports, is the master of graphics.
*The stats are from Synergy sports and the sample size is 13 matches (10 league matches + 3 Supercup matches).
Nikola Topić - Average Stats in ABA League 2023/24
Nikola Topić - Per40 Stats in ABA League 2023/24
Nikola Topić - Advanced Stats in ABA League 2023/24
Nikola Topić - Shot Types in ABA League 2023/24
In the spotlight:
The best in assists per game (6.8)*
Second best in points per game (18.9)
Better than 83% of players in steals per game (1.1)
The worst in turnovers per game (3.3)
Worse than 82% of players in steal to turnover ratio (0.3).
*Klemen Prepelič has a higher average but his sample size of 6 matches is too small.
Offensive role: Nikola Topić is one of the best passers in the ABA League, so it is no surprise that his AST% is very high. This season, he provided assists for 35.2% of his teammates' baskets when he was on the floor. In addition, he often takes the initiative as he finished 24.9% of his team's offensive possessions (USG%).
Floor General: Even if Nikola Topić is the worst in turnovers per game in the league (3.3), he is still very good at running the offense. His assist to turnover ratio (2.1) is very solid especially for such a young player.
Efficient Finisher Inside The 3-Point Line: Nikola Topić is very efficient 2-point scorer as his percentage is 66.3. His biggest strengths are layups (68.6%). If an opponent tries to stop him by committing a foul, Nikola will probably take advantage of it, as he is also very efficient free throw shooter (84.6%). However, statistically his biggest weakness so far is three-point shooting (26.1%), where he is below the league average.
Strengths
Pick & Roll Maestro - one of the best pick & roll guards in this draft class
Court Vision & Passing - scans the floor efficiently and can deliver passes in tight passing windows
Rim Pressure - very explosive and aggressive in his horizontal movements, blows by the first line of defense and easily gets to the rim
Finishing At The Rim - very efficient as a finisher at the rim even though a below the rim finisher
Areas to Improve
Off-Ball Game In Offense - doesn’t bring much value to the team when he is playing without the ball
In-Between Game - it is either a shot from deep or he brings the ball to the rim, rarely he stops and operates or takes the shots from mid-range
Shooting - not a reliable shooter, especially from the NBA range
Pick & Roll Defense - often not initiating the contact with the ball-handler and giving him too much space to create
Off-Ball Defense - communicates a lot, is a “defensive floor general” but often late in rotations and has the habit to over-help when it is not his responsibility to help
Clips & Thoughts
Clip #1 - Topić’s Passing Skills
In Clip #1 above we can see that Nikola Topić has a wide repertoire of passes. There are passes out of pick & rolls to the screen setter, accurate lob passes from top or from out of bounds, he can spot and deliver precise passes to the cutters but probably his main quality are his kickout passes. The defenders are aware how dangerous Nikola is when he is attacking the rim and they just instinctively pack the paint to stop his drives. That leaves a lot of space for shooters and Nikola is very good in spotting them and delivering a sharp pass.
Clip #2 - The Driver
Putting pressure on the rim is Topić’s bread & butter. Usually it looks like he can shift to a higher gear than the defenders and he can just blow by them without any troubles. He uses that extremelly well on open court where he attacks aggressively and likes to go all the way to the rim or when there is a high pick & roll screen and he has a lot of space to attack. Majority of his drives are in a straight line and rarely he changes the direction, maneuvers around defenders or stops and takes a shot from mid-range. This leads to a problem that might be more visible later against better defenders and athletes.. (more on that in next paragraph)
Clip #3 - Predictability
.. his drives are predictable. If he does not have the advantage in the first few dribbles, he usually struggles to create the advantage or enough separation for the finish at the rim. Even in some mismatch situations he could not manage to get by defender with his ball handling skills. He does all the damage with aggressive first few dribbles when he creates the force but if the defense stops him there, they have done more than half of the job.
Clip #4 - Shooting Worries
Nikola Topić is not a consistent shooter from the deep. In ABA league he is shooting just 26.1 % from the three-point range (made 12 out of 46 shot attempts) and in the summer at the U18 European Championship he was even worse. He shot just 9.5 % for three on that competition and made just 2 out of his 21 attempts. In his career so far, in the 73 games played in the databease (ANGT, Serbian U19, ABA U19, various national teams, Serbian league, ABA League) he is shooting 30.2 % on 235 attempts.
The teams in ABA league are slowly getting that and they are taking away his drives and gambling on his shots. Krka for example was very succesful in it and Topić was shooting 2 out of 10 for three on that match and Mega surprisingly lost the match. Cibona also did a good job on limiting the offensive production from Topić with allowing him to take more shots and taking away his drives.
His shooting motion is not completely fluid. The release phases raises some question marks in my head. He is not fully extending the elbow on his shooting hand and also his shots lack the touch. That is obvious on some shots that hit the rim really hard. Can this be fixed? In my opinion, to some extent, yes but I doubt that he will be able to become an above average three-point shooter.
Clip #5 - On-Ball Defense
Evaluating defense is not so easy since we do not know the defensive principles and tactics of what the coaches demand from their players. In most pick & roll defensive plays Topić is just too passive for my taste. He is not close to the ball handler, not initiating the contact or trying to maneuver around the screen. The effort on the defensive plays is questionable, it looks like he is just going through the motions without any ambitions to stop the play or make an impact in defense. Tha last possession on the clip above and his reaction in the rotation gives me some optimism though.
Questions & Answers
What would be his role in the NBA?
Nikola Topić is used to play just in one role - as a primary ballhandler and running the offense. He is not a system player, he is the system. His production is very limited when he is playing without the ball and he can’t add much value to the team when he does not have the ball in his hands. Especially his three-point shooting will need to improve to be a better off-ball player too. Pretty limited on the defensive end too and it is not easy to find the right defensive role for him in the NBA.
On the other hand, can Nikola Topić be so dominant in the NBA that you trust him to run the offense and have a high usage rate? I don’t think so. I am speaking that in general, looking through the eyes of all teams, but the player doesn’t need to be a fit for 29 teams, 1 team is enough to see it differently and give him the right role, opportunity and chance. In my opinion, it is not so easy to find him the right role in defense and hand him the keys to run the offense.
Is his skillset translatable to NBA?
Some parts of it yes but the overall package is not an easy sell. Shooting and on-ball defense are two things that are very important for his position and he is having problems in both of them. His game on open court, creation out of pick & rolls and driving to the rim would translate well and I think he could create the advantage with the force that he creates in the first few dribbles in the NBA too.
At the moment I am not sure if his finishing at the rim is translatable. In NBA the players lurking in the paint and around the rim are longer and more athletic, they could contest the shots way better than players on youth levels in Europe or in ABA league where most big guys lack the vertical athleticism and length.
Guard position is also specific in NBA and teams need to be very patient since they need more time to adapt to the pace, athleticism and geometry of the game. Not many teams are patient in this process, especially with European guards. The game in Europe is played and teached differently than in United States and most European guards are just not made for that style of play.
How many European guards ran the offense in NBA in the last five years? Luka Dončić, Dennis Schröder, Ricky Rubio, Goran Dragić and Killian Hayes were/are getting the chance. Am I missing someone? Vasilije Micić was dominant in Euroleague for a few years straight, came to NBA as a complete player and now struggles in the role of a creator. It is just hard for European guards to leave a mark in NBA.
Nikola Topić is build and moves differently than those five mentioned players that got the chance and used it. Every player writes his own story though and in the right circumstances he might prosper but in general, I think his game is better for Europe than NBA.
Does he have the necessary size, length and athleticism for his position?
Yes. In February 2023 at the BWB Global Camp in Salt Lake City, Nikola Topić was measured as 6’6 tall and with a 7’0 wingspan. Those values are very good for a guard in NBA.
He is very explosive in his horizontal movements but I have not seen him elevate very high verticaly yet. He has above average speed and strength too. I would love too see him use his strength more often with posting up smaller players but he lacks that game - it could give him another dimension and more versatility.
In what range do I think Nikola Topić will be drafted?
This draft is in my opinion wide open and there will be surprises without a doubt. I still haven’t seen all prospects in NCAA and for that matter it is hard to put him on a place on the board. Looking in the future and how I imagine him in NBA, in what role and how many minutes he will play, I would for now put him in the late 1st round - early 2nd round range.
I am not buying the hype of a top5 pick yet. For me there are too many question marks about his off-ball game, defense and how he overall translates to NBA level.