Another French #1 NBA Draft Pick? | Alexandre Sarr NBA Draft Scouting Report
Is France on the road of becoming the third country after USA and Canada of having at least two consecutive #1 picks? Their odds look good at the moment.
Many public NBA draft boards are putting Alexandre Sarr as their #1 option for the 2024 NBA draft in the beginning of 2024. As I said in my last article, it is too early to make any big conclusions when there are still six months till the draft and a lot can change in this period. Neither do I put much value on those rankings and I always go with my own opinion, right or wrong.
All that I can say for now is that Alexandre Sarr is having a great season for the Perth Wildcats so far. He was dominant in the G League Invitational in preseason when he had 17 points, 7 rebounds and 6 blocks in first game against Ignite and then, two days later against the same opponent, he had a 26 points, 10 rebounds and 6 blocks performance.
That was a breakout for him and he set the expectations very high. I watched him live in Debrecen, Hungary at the U19 World Cup just a few months before that and he was not showing anything similar in offense as he did at the G League Invitational. I could see the intrigue of what he can become over years but I haven’t expected that he is capable of such offensive performances already.
In Australian NBL he continues with good performances but not on the same level as in the preseason. To be fair, it would be crazy to expect that he will continue with those performances for the whole season in pro competition. His role got smaller and more experienced players are getting more minutes. It makes sense, the team has the ambitions to win games too and not everything turns around Sarr.
Alexandre, after all, still manages to average 9.6 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.1 blocks in almost 18 minutes on the floor. Those numbers are very good for a young player that has his first touch with a professional league so kudos to him!
At the end of 2023 Alexandre suffered a hip strain that removed him from the court and at the time of writing this article he is still out. He should return at the end of January and we will need to wait and see if the injury left some marks on him and his game.
Statistical Overview
This is the part of the report where I can just lay back and let others do their work. Jernej is the master of numbers & graphs and Tilen, as you already saw in previous reports, is the master of graphics.
*The stats are from Synergy sports and the sample size is 18 matches.
Alexandre Sarr - Average Stats in NBL 2023/24
Alexandre Sarr - Per40 Stats in NBL 2023/24
Alexandre Sarr - Advanced Stats in NBL 2023/24
Alexandre Sarr - Shot Types in NBL 2023/24
In the spotlight:
8th best in blocks per game (1.1)
Better than 79% of players in points per 40 minutes (21.4)
Better than 79% of players in rebounds per 40 minutes (10.0)
Worse than 83% of players in free throws percentage (61.0)
Offensive role: Despite coming off the bench, Alexandre Sarr has a notably high Usage Percentage (USG%) of 22.3%, demonstrating his impact in attacking possessions. While playmaking isn't his primary role, he still manages to make a noteworthy contribution by facilitating 8.0% of his teammates' baskets with key passes. This ability adds a valuable dimension to his game, especially considering his position as a young center.
Rim protector: Alexandre Sarr has an impressive statistical profile with his standout skill being shot blocking. Widely recognized as one of the premier shot blockers in the Australian league, he has successfully stopped 6.1% of his opponents' attempts (BLK%). Additionally, his prowess extends to the boards, where he secures 13.2% of available rebounds (TRB%). While he may not yet rank among the absolute elite rebounders, his performance in this aspect of the game is commendable, particularly considering the stage of his career.
Strengths
Athletic Tools - has great length, speed, vertical leap, mobility, moves fluidly for his size…
Rim Protection - contests or alters shots at the rim
Defensive Upside - capable of switching and defending outside while also a good rim protector; has the tools to be a great defender
Offensive Versatility - stretches the floor and attacks face up, good pick & roll player, can handle the ball in transition…
Areas to Improve
“Everything” - this could be added for the majority of draft prospects but Alexandre is quite raw and one of those “high upside what they can become” prospects
Bulk Up - he has a lot of space on his frame to add more muscle mass even though he added a lot already in the last two years
Defensive Awareness & Instincts - often wanting too much and going for blocks, needs to become more patient
Outside Shooting - improving in this area but still not a reliable shooting threat
Clips & Thoughts
Clip #1 - Sarr’s Shooting Potential
I believe a lot of Alexandre Sarr’s offensive upside will depend on how good and reliable he can become as a stretch option. He is slowly adding the range and just two to three years ago, he was basically a non-shooter. The shooting motion is not bad so there is a possibility that he can become at least a solid shooting threat. So far in this season, he has made 13 out of 44 attempts (29.5 %) in NBL and he made 51 three-point shots out of 195 attempts (26.2 %) since 2021 in various competitions. His free throws shooting raises some questions too since he is usually at around 60% through his career so far. Those percentages will just need to get better and I think they will, the question is just where will he stop. I would say that he can achieve around 33-36% three-point and 69-73% free-throw career percentages which is a pretty good number for a big man.
Clip #2 - Rim Pressure
Alex Sarr is showing very good spatial awareness in offense. He rolls well after he sets the screen, follows the plays, opens the passing lanes or lurks around the dunker spot to get the ball. He has solid hands and also showing a soft finishing touch when he goes for a finish at the rim. Sometimes he struggles with finishing through contact but when he gets stronger in his upper body, he should be fine. Alex has good ball handling skills for a big too and is capable of playing face up or pushing the ball in transition. That gives him the advantage over the defenders and this can be a really valuable skill in his game once he perfects this craft. Getting better and more reliable as a stretcher would open even more space for him and that would bring his offensive game to an even higher level.
Clip #3 - Defense, Defense, Defense!
The defensive upside from Alexandre Sarr is very high. He has very good feet and, as you can see in the clip above, he is capable of following the guards on perimeter with his feet and stay with them on drives. Being able to switch on smaller players and not allowing easy points is something that is very valuable in today’s NBA. Alex contests the shots at the rim and sometimes even scares away the offensive player from attempting a shot over him. When he gets stronger and adds more muscle, he will become a better post up defender too - as you could see in the clip, he can be moved around too easily at the moment. Of course, not a perfect defensive player but he looks very promising and with more experience, he will get just better. But there is one issue that is repeating over and over again..
Clip #4 - Awareness & Instincts Worries
Alexandre Sarr has the habit of often wanting to do too much. He is losing sight of his player and being too ball focused, allowing cuts or offensive rebounds, he is over-commiting with helping, jumping and trying to block all the shots and often also making an unnecessary foul and getting in the foul trouble because of it. He needs to be more aware of what is going on, be more patient and make a little better reads and decision in defense. As said, he has all the athletic tools to be a great defender but he will need to use those tools smarter. It could also be that lack of experience is the reason for those “mistakes” and that there will be less and less things like this in the future. Definitely something to be aware of since this can be a big issue for him and his defensive ceiling.
Questions & Answers
What would be his role in the NBA?
I think in defense he would be used as a switch defender. As explained in the paragraphs above, he has the athletic tools to switch in defense and follow the guards or wings on perimeter and when he bulks up, he will be better interior defender too. He should be an above average shot blocker through his career. A lot in his defense will depend on his awareness though and how focused and reliable he can be to not get into foul trouble.
Due to his offensive versatility he can be used in many different roles but I believe he will be mostly used as an face up/stretch big. He will need to continue improving in his three-point shot and be a more reliable shooting threat. With his ball handling skills, he will be able to attack other bigs with drives and put pressure on the rim. He should be good as a pick & roll rolling big too and as a catch & finisher in the paint so there are many options how to use him in offense.
Is his skillset translatable to NBA?
It should be, yes. As mentioned throught the article, he is physically not ready yet and he will need to bulk up to be more competitive against “the big guys” but over years he should be fine.
The technical skillset is at the moment quite raw and he will need some time to chisel his skills too. I don’t think he is ready to be immediately thrown into the water to swim and that he will need some time to adapt to NBA level.
The overall package is there and I can imagine his player profile and game translating to NBA, it just depends how much he will improve in his skills and how big/important his role will be.
In what range do I think Alexandre Sarr will be drafted?
It is not hard to spot a trend that NBA teams are drafting guys with similar physical tools very high in recent drafts. From a thousand feet perspective, we could describe the players as “thin framed, long, athletic, versatile and skilled big with high defensive potential” and immediately many players come to our mind. Evan Mobley, Chet Holmgren and Victor Wembanyama are the first one’s but also Mo Bamba could fit in that description in some shades or forms.
If we look on which positions those players were drafted:
Mo Bamba #6 in 2018
Evan Mobley #3 in 2021
Chet Holmgren #2 in 2022
Victor Wembanyama #1 in 2023
The idea is just too intriguing and it is easy to fall in love with a skilled big nowadays and get sold on the promise of what he can become in the future. But on the other hand, if you skip those players and you don’t believe in the promise, you can quickly make a big mistake - like in the examples of Giannis Antetokounmpo or Pascal Siakam amongst others.
This year’s draft class is not so strong and I think there are not many players that have a higher upside/potential than Sarr. With that in mind, I believe he will be drafted in the top5, worst case in top7. However, I would not be willing to bet that he will be the top5 player in this class when we draw the line at the end of their careers.
The “promise” is charming but a lot of things will need to improve to get the necessary “production.” I read that some people online put him in the All-Star bucket in their reports but I don’t see him becoming an All-Star or All-Defensive team player in the future but more a good starting big and a 3rd to 4th option in the team.
Does it make sense then to pick a player that has the ceiling of a 3rd/4th option in the team as a top5 pick? Normally no, but at the moment I don’t see a much higher ceiling for any other player in this draft. It is still six months till the draft and a lot of games to watch so things can change…
What are his rim protecting stats in comparison with Evan Mobley, Bam Adebayo and Chet Holmgren in their college rookie year?
This is a tough question to answer since we are comparing apples to oranges. Competing in a college environment against players similar age and against players that in the majority will not play basketball professionally or playing against more experienced, stronger professional basketball players is a big difference right from the start.
Also, I am not a big fan of drawing any comparisons just through numbers because it can quickly paint the wrong picture if you misinterpret the data. In my evaluations, I am trusting way more my eyes and especially my gut feeling than the numbers and we will see over time if that is smart or not.
To answer the question, here is the chart of their rim protecting stats:
I am not sure which statistic number is the best to tell me the ability to protect the rim. I believe it is not just about the blocked shots, sometimes just the presence can be the decisive factor of a great rim protector or the opponents field goal percentage at the rim could tell us something too.
From the numbers above, I can draw the conclusion that amongst those four players, Chet Holmgren is in his own league when it comes to rim protection. Evan Mobley and Bam Adebayo have similar numbers as Alexandre Sarr but again, they were competing against college players and not against more experienced pros.
Evan Mobley, Chet Holmgren and Bam Adebayo are amongst the best defenders in NBA right now so this is an elite company for Alexandre Sarr for sure. There are many other (young) great defensive players on the frontcourt positions in the names of Jaren Jackson Jr., Victor Wembanyama, Nic Claxton and many others. And let’s not forget on more experienced Rudy Gobert, Anthony Davis, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid that still have some years in their tank and bring a lot of value in defense.
The competition is huge and honestly, I don’t think Alexandre Sarr has the tools to be a much better defender than the players I mentioned. He can become an above average and valuable defender in the NBA but I don’t see him in the All-Defensive team considerations often through his career.
What do I think about his rebounding and motor?
Jernej already touched his rebounding skills a little in the statistical analysis so I will add the quote of what the numbers are telling:
“Additionally, his prowess extends to the boards, where he secures 13.2% of available rebounds (TRB%). While he may not yet rank among the absolute elite rebounders, his performance in this aspect of the game is commendable, particularly considering the stage of his career.”
Alexandre Sarr should be a good rebounder in NBA too but I don’t see him amongst the elite one’s. The main reason for that is the lack of motor. He is not always going for the rebounds, he is not aggressive enough and sometimes just waits for the ball to come towards him. In NBA where there are always some elite athletes on the floor that won’t go through and he will miss some rebounds because of that.
Due to his length and athleticism he will collect some boards but I doubt that he will average close to double digit rebounding numbers in his career. I see him more as a 6-8 rebounds per game player.